The answer is yes, of course.

Over the course of 2020, the price of Tesla stock increased from $88 to $705 (~720%). This is despite revenue and earnings increasing only 39% and 73%, respectively. While the Tesla company is unquestionably impressive, these price gains seem excessive.

I’m going to make a bold and specific claim. On January 4th, 2021, when TSLA was selling for $730, it was fundamentally overvalued by 12.35x. In other words, Tesla’s closing price should have been about $59.

How can I claim this? I trained a machine learning model to predict stock prices.

Model basic anatomy

  • Dataset: The latest…


Like many amateur investors, I spent the early COVID period frantically shuffling my money around — trying to limit losses. Later, as the market reversed in early April, I instead sought out undervalued stocks I could use to recover quickly. While I somehow came out ahead, the madness of the period made it clear how crude my investment strategy was.

Amateur investors like myself have rather basic tools. Most of us will just look at the P/E ratio, decide whether that number “feels fair”, and go from there. Some more sophisticated investors might also look at the P/S or the…


A guide to trekking the five-day Greek trail

In November of 2019, my girlfriend and I walked the Menalon trail in Greece. This is a five-day trail that visits nine picturesque historic villages and some stunning scenery in central Peloponnese. We had a fantastic time.

I love multiday trekking. In the past, I’ve done the Salkantay trek in Peru and the Portuguese Camino along with a multitude of shorter trips. It’s my absolute favorite way to travel. We chose Greece because as an intercontinental couple (she lives in India), flights to Athens were the cheapest combined tickets.

While planning the trip, we couldn’t find a lot of information…


Why are microservices so popular when there are such apparent downsides?

Microservices have become ubiquitous in the architecture of modern tech companies — large and small. But are they better than previous development models? In this talk article, I will debunk the seven fictions that engineers tell themselves about microservices and why they might be an anti-pattern.

Disclaimer 1: I’m not an architect, nor do I pretend to be. These are simply observations I’ve made over the years as a software developer/manager. I’ve had the opportunity to watch two companies struggle under the weight that microservice architectures have imposed. Since relatively few people seriously question this new paradigm, I wanted to…


I’m a big fan of Tyler Cowen’s podcast, Conversations with Tyler. Tyler Cowen is an economist, polymath, and long-time editor of the Marginal Revolution blog. On his wide-ranging interviews, Tyler speaks with various academics, authors, and generally interesting individuals — many of whom are under-recognized.

Near the end of most episodes, Tyler asks some version of this question to his guests: “What is your production function?”. For those without an economics background, a “production function” is a mathematical equation that explains how to get outputs from inputs. For example, the relationship between the weather in Florida and the number of…


And, if so, can that be measured?

TLDR: Yes, it made me more fit. Scroll down to see an animation and a derived equation.

Last month, I finished the Tour Aotearoa — a 3000 km bikepacking tour across New Zealand. The cutoff to finish was 30 days. I started on February 21st and finished on March 23rd — 29 days, 23 hours, and 45 minutes later. So I finished a 30-day tour with only 15 minutes to spare.

I knew that the tour would be a challenge. While I’m generally fit and have done some bikepacking trips, including 2 weeks on the GDMBT, I had gained some…


Over the past few days, I’ve been working on a small service to embed invisible watermarks in photographs. After several attempts to implement a few papers, I realized that the science isn’t yet “good enough” for a real-world invisible watermarking service. In particular, watermarks from even the latest papers don’t seem to be resistant to resizing.

Undeterred, I spent two days fusing different approaches into a more robust algorithm. At first, the results were promising. However, I soon ran into a stumbling block that caused me to question whether my approach would work at all. …

Scott Rogowski

Author of mongita & code2flow. Working on FFER & fastmap.

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